04-28-2002, 05:50 AM
Latest Chinese puzzle has experts baffled
By HARVEY STOCKWIN
Special to The Japan Times
HONG KONG -- For China-watchers, the puzzling China contrast is between a nation that sends the capsule Shenzhou 3 into space and one that drags a seemingly useless rusty hull halfway around the globe. China's first aircraft carrier has finally arrived in port, but the mystery remains as to what conceivable value it can be to the modernization of the Chinese military.
The carrier is the never-completed, never-commissioned former Soviet, former Ukrainian 56,000-ton, 331-meter-long Varyag, sister ship of the only aircraft carrier presently serving in the Russian Navy, the Admiral Kuznetsov, which is part of Russia's Northern Fleet.
Now, after an epic journey lasting nearly 18 months, during which it had to be towed all the way, informed sources indicate that the Varyag has finally arrived in Chinese waters. It is further understood that the Varyag has been taken to the northern port and naval base of Dalian.
The Varyag was roughly 75 percent complete when the Soviet Union collapsed. Work on it ceased at the Nikolayev shipyard in 1992, since the Ukrainian government had no use for a carrier in its small navy. The Varyag was subsequently purchased for $20 million by a shadowy tourism company registered in Macau called the Chong Lot Tourism and Recreation Agency Ltd. Chong Lot was connected to two Hong Kong companies, Goldspot Investments Ltd. and Chinluck Holdings Ltd.
All three firms had connections with former People's Liberation Army officials. It was claimed that the Varyag would be used as a floating casino-fun-palace, a claim that the Macau government all along disputed.
Varyag began its epic journey from Nikolayev to China in the third quarter of 1999 but then proceeded to go around in circles for nearly 12 months as the Turkish government refused to let it pass through the Bosporus. Dependent upon tugs, the Varyag was considered a dangerous hazard in that narrow waterway. Clearly indicating Chinese official concern over the Varyag's fate, Beijing officials eventually persuaded Turkey that it would be both safe and profitable to let the hulk pass through the narrow waterway.
The Varyag then nearly sank in an Aegean Sea storm when it broke its towing lines. One tug crew member lost his life reattaching the tow.
Since the Varyag was a "dead" ship, being without either rudder or engines, passage through the Suez Canal was out of the question. So three tugs have towed it all the way around the Cape of Good Hope, across the Indian Ocean, and through the South China Sea.
As anticipated, the Varyag did not stop in Macau, its earlier stated destination. Looking to its future development, Macau recently awarded gambling and casino licenses to sophisticated firms from Las Vegas, but certainly not to a rusting rickety Russian wreck.
According to one Internet source, Varyag arrived in Chinese waters around Feb. 20 and reached its new destination, the northern Chinese port of Dalian early in March. The tow is finally over, but the mystery lingers on.
What were Macau and Hongkong front companies doing spending millions of dollars -- anywhere between $30 and $50 million by one estimate -- to tow a decrepit skeleton of a carrier half way around the world?
The Varyag is now presumably in the possession of the PLA Navy, but what can it possibly do with it? In terms of technology, China's naval architects could have learned all that there is to learn from the out-of-date Varyag, without towing it all the way to China.
Varyag cannot be a "training platform" for takeoffs and landings as one defense expert suggests. Carriers must go at full speed into the wind when aircraft use them for that purpose -- and Varyag still has no rudder or engines. Electronics were either never fitted or removed before it was sold.
The PLA Navy could put engines and a rudder in place, but the state of the hull suggests the Chinese would do far better to build a new carrier themselves.
Certainly, two former Russian carriers, the Minsk and the Kiev, now serve as Chinese tourist attractions in Shenzhen and Tianjin respectively. But at least they were complete naval vessels before being cheaply obtained.
For what has already been spent on the Varyag, a far more glamorous floating tourist attraction could have been quickly obtained from a South Korean shipbuilding yard.
So the Varyag mystery boils down to this: How on earth is China going to get any satisfactory return for this hefty investment in time, money and effort? What is the conceivable appeal of Varyag at a time when the Chinese military should be concentrating its resources on the frontier of modernity indicated by the Shenzhou space capsules?
Harvey Stockwin broadcasts a weekly commentary, "Reflections From Asia," over Radio-TV Hongkong, and is East Asia correspondent for the Times of India.
The Japan Times: April 28, 2002
(C) All rights reserved
By HARVEY STOCKWIN
Special to The Japan Times
HONG KONG -- For China-watchers, the puzzling China contrast is between a nation that sends the capsule Shenzhou 3 into space and one that drags a seemingly useless rusty hull halfway around the globe. China's first aircraft carrier has finally arrived in port, but the mystery remains as to what conceivable value it can be to the modernization of the Chinese military.
The carrier is the never-completed, never-commissioned former Soviet, former Ukrainian 56,000-ton, 331-meter-long Varyag, sister ship of the only aircraft carrier presently serving in the Russian Navy, the Admiral Kuznetsov, which is part of Russia's Northern Fleet.
Now, after an epic journey lasting nearly 18 months, during which it had to be towed all the way, informed sources indicate that the Varyag has finally arrived in Chinese waters. It is further understood that the Varyag has been taken to the northern port and naval base of Dalian.
The Varyag was roughly 75 percent complete when the Soviet Union collapsed. Work on it ceased at the Nikolayev shipyard in 1992, since the Ukrainian government had no use for a carrier in its small navy. The Varyag was subsequently purchased for $20 million by a shadowy tourism company registered in Macau called the Chong Lot Tourism and Recreation Agency Ltd. Chong Lot was connected to two Hong Kong companies, Goldspot Investments Ltd. and Chinluck Holdings Ltd.
All three firms had connections with former People's Liberation Army officials. It was claimed that the Varyag would be used as a floating casino-fun-palace, a claim that the Macau government all along disputed.
Varyag began its epic journey from Nikolayev to China in the third quarter of 1999 but then proceeded to go around in circles for nearly 12 months as the Turkish government refused to let it pass through the Bosporus. Dependent upon tugs, the Varyag was considered a dangerous hazard in that narrow waterway. Clearly indicating Chinese official concern over the Varyag's fate, Beijing officials eventually persuaded Turkey that it would be both safe and profitable to let the hulk pass through the narrow waterway.
The Varyag then nearly sank in an Aegean Sea storm when it broke its towing lines. One tug crew member lost his life reattaching the tow.
Since the Varyag was a "dead" ship, being without either rudder or engines, passage through the Suez Canal was out of the question. So three tugs have towed it all the way around the Cape of Good Hope, across the Indian Ocean, and through the South China Sea.
As anticipated, the Varyag did not stop in Macau, its earlier stated destination. Looking to its future development, Macau recently awarded gambling and casino licenses to sophisticated firms from Las Vegas, but certainly not to a rusting rickety Russian wreck.
According to one Internet source, Varyag arrived in Chinese waters around Feb. 20 and reached its new destination, the northern Chinese port of Dalian early in March. The tow is finally over, but the mystery lingers on.
What were Macau and Hongkong front companies doing spending millions of dollars -- anywhere between $30 and $50 million by one estimate -- to tow a decrepit skeleton of a carrier half way around the world?
The Varyag is now presumably in the possession of the PLA Navy, but what can it possibly do with it? In terms of technology, China's naval architects could have learned all that there is to learn from the out-of-date Varyag, without towing it all the way to China.
Varyag cannot be a "training platform" for takeoffs and landings as one defense expert suggests. Carriers must go at full speed into the wind when aircraft use them for that purpose -- and Varyag still has no rudder or engines. Electronics were either never fitted or removed before it was sold.
The PLA Navy could put engines and a rudder in place, but the state of the hull suggests the Chinese would do far better to build a new carrier themselves.
Certainly, two former Russian carriers, the Minsk and the Kiev, now serve as Chinese tourist attractions in Shenzhen and Tianjin respectively. But at least they were complete naval vessels before being cheaply obtained.
For what has already been spent on the Varyag, a far more glamorous floating tourist attraction could have been quickly obtained from a South Korean shipbuilding yard.
So the Varyag mystery boils down to this: How on earth is China going to get any satisfactory return for this hefty investment in time, money and effort? What is the conceivable appeal of Varyag at a time when the Chinese military should be concentrating its resources on the frontier of modernity indicated by the Shenzhou space capsules?
Harvey Stockwin broadcasts a weekly commentary, "Reflections From Asia," over Radio-TV Hongkong, and is East Asia correspondent for the Times of India.
The Japan Times: April 28, 2002
(C) All rights reserved