Ed definitely an interesting area of research, but a huge undertaking! I had started to think about this a little a while back, but kept getting a headache, so I stopped.
The hard part is always going to be where two geographically seperate areas developed the same thing simultaneously. Grappling type arts are by far the oldest, but were very similar all over the world, proving links or evolutionary paths will be difficult.
I have tried linking the wrestling shown in books from 17th century Holland to jujutsu. I believe that the techniques were brought back by the traders and soldiers that travelled to Japan in the 16th and 17th centuries, but the general consensus from historians and researchers seemed to be that they developed independently despite many similarities. I don't necessarily agree but without conclusive evidence it's impossible to say.
I would say that your best approach would be to start small and try and trace one specific area, then branch out where opportunities appear. Maybe a simple 'atlas' of arts or styles would be a good place to start, then start looking at origination dates, similarites, etc, this would undoubtedly lead to some conclusions re expansion and spread, but as I said big task.
I'll pass your post onto Joe (he's having connection problems at present) it's bound to be something he's considered and he may have some suggestions.
Regards
Neil
[Edited by Neil Hawkins on 12-18-2000 at 03:45 AM]
Neil Hawkins
"The one thing that must be learnt but
cannot be taught is understanding"